ANC on the Edge: Senzo Mchunu Sounds Alarm on Party’s Survival

BillyLouisjay August 18, 2025



South Africa’s political landscape is witnessing one of its most pivotal moments in decades. Suspended Police Minister and African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) member Senzo Mchunu recently delivered a stark warning: the ANC risks collapse unless urgent reforms are implemented. Speaking at a memorial for the late struggle stalwart Nokuhamba Nyawo in Machobeni, Ngwavuma, Mchunu painted a vivid picture, likening the party’s precarious state to “a person walking on the edge of a cliff.”

With the 2026 local government elections fast approaching, Mchunu’s statements are more than rhetorical—they are a wake-up call. In this deep dive, we explore the ANC’s historical trajectory, analyze the gravity of Mchunu’s warning, and assess what this means for South Africa’s political future.

The ANC’s Historical Rise and Challenges

The African National Congress, founded in 1912, has been the central figure in South African politics for over a century. Initially established to fight racial discrimination and apartheid, the ANC emerged as a liberation movement that galvanized international support for equality and democracy. Its historical significance is cemented by figures like Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo, and Walter Sisulu, whose leadership helped dismantle apartheid and usher in South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994.

Key Milestones:

  • 1912: ANC founded in Bloemfontein to unite African people against colonial oppression.

  • 1944: Formation of the ANC Youth League, introducing militant activism into the liberation struggle.

  • 1960s–1980s: Intensified anti-apartheid campaigns, international sanctions, and imprisonment of leaders.

  • 1994: Nelson Mandela elected as South Africa’s first Black president, ANC begins its governance era.

  • 2000s–Present: Period of consolidation, internal factionalism, and increasing public scrutiny over corruption.

Despite its historic role, the ANC has faced mounting challenges in recent years. Allegations of corruption, internal factional battles, and growing public dissatisfaction have tarnished its reputation. The party’s long tenure in power—spanning over three decades—has created both institutional stability and complacency, leaving it vulnerable to electoral backlash.

Senzo Mchunu’s Warning: A Political Earthquake?

Senzo Mchunu’s recent statement is not merely cautionary—it is a strategic alarm bell for both party members and voters. Speaking at the memorial, he emphasized that complacency and arrogance have contributed to recent electoral losses. “People still love the ANC, but we became big-headed and they punished us,” he said.

Mchunu’s remarks highlight several critical dimensions:

  1. Internal Reform Imperative: The ANC must modernize its internal governance, enhance transparency, and address corruption head-on.

  2. Electoral Sensitivity: Upcoming local elections could determine the party’s survival in its traditional strongholds.

  3. Strategic Alliances: Temporary coalitions with opposition parties like the IFP and DA may provide short-term benefits but cannot replace internal renewal.

  4. Public Perception: Restoring trust with the electorate is paramount; voters are increasingly willing to punish underperforming incumbents.

Implications for the 2026 Local Elections

The 2026 local government elections could be a defining moment for the ANC. Analysts suggest that municipal governance failures, coupled with internal divisions, could significantly erode support, especially in urban centers like Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban.

Potential Scenarios:

  • Scenario 1: Internal Reforms Succeed
    The ANC undertakes swift structural reforms, addresses corruption scandals, and engages communities proactively. This could stabilize support and retain majority control in key municipalities.

  • Scenario 2: Status Quo Continues
    Without meaningful reform, the ANC risks losing urban and suburban councils to opposition parties, potentially jeopardizing control of strategic regions ahead of the 2029 national elections.

  • Scenario 3: Factional Fragmentation
    Persistent internal infighting could lead to splinter groups or defections, diluting the party’s influence and strengthening rivals.

Voter Behavior Insights:

  • Recent polls indicate growing dissatisfaction among youth and first-time voters who view the ANC as out of touch with modern governance expectations.

  • Communities affected by service delivery failures—such as water, electricity, and municipal infrastructure—are increasingly shifting their support to smaller opposition parties.

  • Social media campaigns and civic engagement platforms are amplifying grassroots voices, creating both opportunities and risks for the ANC.

Internal Faction Dynamics: The Elephant in the Room

One of the ANC’s enduring challenges has been its factional landscape. From provincial power struggles to national-level disagreements, internal divisions have often undermined policy consistency and electoral performance.

Key Factions:

  • Reformist Bloc: Advocates for transparency, anti-corruption measures, and generational renewal.

  • Status Quo Loyalists: Resistant to radical change, prioritizing party unity over structural reforms.

  • Regional Power Brokers: Leaders wielding influence in key provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Gauteng, whose support can swing election outcomes.

Understanding these factions is critical because coalition politics alone cannot save the ANC; internal alignment is essential for coherent governance and public confidence.

Expert Commentary and Political Forecasts

Political analysts offer varied perspectives on the ANC’s trajectory:

  • William Gumede, Associate Professor at the University of the Witwatersrand, notes:
    “The ANC’s survival will depend on its ability to self-correct. Without genuine internal reform and engagement with the electorate, even its historic legacy may not save it.”

  • Imraan Buccus, Senior Research Associate at the Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute, highlights:
    “Complacency is costly. The ANC faces a generation of voters who prioritize service delivery and accountability over historical loyalty.”

  • Mike Mabuyakhulu, KwaZulu-Natal ANC Coordinator, emphasizes the fragility of temporary alliances:
    “Coalitions with opposition parties are stop-gap measures. They cannot replace deep-rooted party reform or voter trust-building.”

Forecasting the 2026 elections suggests a highly competitive landscape. Analysts anticipate that if the ANC fails to act decisively, opposition parties—particularly the DA, EFF, and IFP—could gain significant ground, reshaping South Africa’s political map.

The Broader Socio-Economic Context

Political stability in South Africa cannot be divorced from socio-economic realities. Rising unemployment, widespread poverty, and growing public dissatisfaction with corruption have created an electorate that demands accountability. The ANC’s response to these challenges will determine whether it remains the dominant political force or cedes ground to emerging parties.

Key Socio-Economic Pressures:

  • Youth Unemployment: With more than 60% of South African youth unemployed, political discontent is concentrated among the most active voters.

  • Municipal Service Failures: Poor infrastructure, water shortages, and erratic electricity supply are undermining public trust.

  • Corruption Allegations: High-profile cases, including those involving senior NEC members, have eroded credibility.

Strategic Opportunities for the ANC

Despite the challenges, the ANC has opportunities to regain momentum:

  1. Grassroots Engagement: Active participation in local governance projects can rebuild community trust.

  2. Digital Mobilization: Leveraging social media campaigns to communicate reform initiatives.

  3. Policy Innovation: Addressing pressing issues like housing, energy, and youth employment.

  4. Transparency Measures: Public accountability initiatives can rebuild confidence after corruption scandals.

FAQs About ANC’s Current Political Situation

Q1: Why is Senzo Mchunu suspended?
A1: Mchunu is on special leave following corruption allegations, though he has not addressed these claims directly.

Q2: What are the stakes for the 2026 local elections?
A2: The elections could determine whether the ANC retains control in key municipalities, impacting its national dominance ahead of the 2029 general elections.

Q3: Can coalitions with parties like the DA and IFP save the ANC?
A3: Temporary alliances may help manage municipal governance but cannot replace internal reform or rebuild voter trust.

Q4: What reforms does the ANC need most urgently?
A4: Transparency, anti-corruption initiatives, youth engagement, and service delivery improvements are key areas.

Q5: How can voters influence ANC reform?
A5: Civic participation, voting in local elections, and holding elected officials accountable through public forums are critical avenues for influence.

Affiliate Opportunities and Monetization Touchpoints

For blogs aiming to integrate subtle monetization while remaining informative:

  • Political Books & Analysis: Suggest purchasing books on South African politics, ANC history, and leadership studies. Example affiliate: Amazon Political Analysis Titles.

  • Online Courses: Promote courses on governance, public administration, or political strategy. Example affiliate: Coursera Governance Courses.

  • Data & Research Tools: Offer subscriptions to political polling or socio-economic research databases. Example affiliate: Statista Political Insights.

These links can be naturally embedded in sections discussing historical context, political forecasts, or policy analysis, providing value while monetizing content.

Conclusion: ANC at a Crossroads

The ANC stands at a decisive moment in its history. Senzo Mchunu’s warning is a clarion call for introspection, reform, and strategic action. With 2026 local elections looming, the party must address internal factionalism, restore public trust, and engage communities effectively. Failure to do so could transform the ANC from a historic powerhouse into a cautionary tale of complacency.

The survival of South Africa’s ruling party is no longer guaranteed by legacy or history alone. In the coming months, voters, analysts, and party members alike will watch closely as the ANC confronts its internal and external challenges. Whether it adapts and thrives or stumbles into irrelevance remains one of the most critical questions for the nation’s political future.

Stay informed on all developments in South African politics by following Daily South African Pulse for expert analysis, updates, and insider insights.

Read...Floyd Shivambu’s Mayibuye Movement: A New Political Chapter in South Africa’s Changing Landscape

See Also..Shockwaves in South African Politics: Mapisa-Nqakula’s Court Drama and What It Means for the ANC

References & Sources

BillyLouisjay

Posted by BillyLouisjay

Post a Comment

0 Comments

Post a Comment